Not very well if you ask me. Below is my estimate of unemployement in the fall and in the fall of 2012. I just copied Obama's curve but I didn't return it to 5%.

I think our new base will be above 6%.

As you can see unemployment will be around 10% in the fall, even the White House admits this. The really scary number is 7.5% unemployment 2 1/2 years from now. Given that the unemployment numbers have been found to be low by about 1 million jobs, this means that there will still be over 10 million Americans unemployed and millions more underemployed.

It is hard to see how Obama could possibly re-elected under this optimistic scenario. This ignores the fact that the US could easily slip back into recession making things much worse.